Western sources, including the Russians, expected the war in Ukraine to end within days. A year and a half later, both sides are preparing to continue fighting.

This war is taking a huge toll on Ukraine. People who should work, study and raise their children are fighting and losing their lives in defense of their motherland. The Russian army, which is constantly talking about humanitarianism, is constantly bombarding Ukrainian cities and blocking its water ports. Ukraine's economy is still a long way off.

Russia is also experiencing the pain of war. Its economy is under international sanctions; it is isolated and neglected on the world stage, and its citizens with strong knowledge are fleeing their country. The war instigated by the Russian authorities has blocked Russia's development opportunities, set it back by decades, and sacrificed the lives of its citizens. Social stability is being undermined.

Empty promises and the inevitable struggle for power.

"Ukrainians hate and loathe their leadership," "What is the army in Ukraine; will they welcome the Russians with a wall?" and ridicule them. This war, which was started based on completely wrong assumptions and calculations, revealed the weaknesses of Moscow rather than Kiev.

The Ukrainians stood up and said that there was no one who had longed for the Russians and built a fort, and God would not give them their homeland even if they asked for it. They complained that the Russian army, which is the second, if not the best, in the world, was clumsy, incompetent to maneuver, its weapons and equipment were outdated, and its supplies were stuck. It is evident that the generals leading the army were appointed on the basis of loyalty to the Commander-in-Chief rather than military knowledge. Capable commanders were forced out and some went missing.

Prigogine's rebellion proved that the idea V. Putin has monopoly power and controls everything is false. It is very rare to see a person who rebelled against the government and the army walking freely in St. Petersburg and understand what is really going on. If you can't find your seat above, how can you find your seat below? They are trying to quell public discontent by arresting, incarcerating, intimidating, hostage-taking, and using force, and they are brainwashing their people 24/7 with the unbelievable illusion that "everything is going as planned." It seems that it is only a matter of time before Russia becomes more unstable and the conflict between the elites escalates.

The economy has begun to collapse.

According to Russian economist V. Milov, "In the first quarter of 2023, oil and gas exports income will decrease by 52.3 percent per year, and it will be difficult for Russia to cover the costs of the military war."

Despite the increase in the world market price of oil in the last few months, Russia's ability to sell in the international market has deteriorated significantly. China, which is a good partner, is currently buying at a very discounted prices, and India is buying at a discounted price and paying in its own currency, rupees. The inability to buy things here and there with that rupee is putting the Russian budget in a very difficult situation. They advertise that "economic sanctions against Russia are not working" and "we are not afraid of sanctions", but in reality, the sanctions have significantly weakened Russia's ability to fight, thereby saving the lives of many Ukrainians.

As the economic crisis began, the Russian government banned the publication of statistics on oil and gas production and the budget. Even the central Russian television is panicking that the Russian ruble has fallen and has become "toilet paper". Oleg Deripaska, one of the Russian oligarchs, questioned "how can the Russian economy exist?" without foreign investment and without the world market.

According to previously disclosed official Russian statistics, the defense spending budget will double to $100 billion in 2023, more than a third of total budget spending. As the government spends more money on war, it means less budget for other sectors of the country, especially public schools, hospitals and other essential services. Fortunately, when electricity was cut off in Dagestan recently and hundreds of citizens rose up in protest against the authorities, the governor of the republic, Sergey Melikov, said, "Unfortunately, we cannot expect quick results." The energy infrastructure in the region has been neglected for 30 years and now it is "sad”.

With economic depression and war, it is clear that crime, poverty, and despair will increase. Behind all this are the hopes and dreams of hundreds of millions of people which will not come true. The fact that the Russian people did not oppose Prigogine's rebellion says something, and it is likely that they will not oppose a change of government. According to history, dictators who followed crazy, stupid and cruel policies can maintain their power for a long time, and it is worth reading S. Guriev's book about the emergence of "spin dictators".

In short, the situation is like this, and the dictators can be "foreseeing" it, that is, "the patience of the West will soon run out and Ukraine will be abandoned." But humanity must prove in the 21st century that no one who invades other people's territory should be called a hero, a sage, or a cunning person.